The vault – blog

With Donald Trump’s inauguration now just one day away, much is unknown but one forecast is for sure: he will not be a placid President content to let bygones be bygones or controversies pass uncontested. Database query tools The battlefields on which the President-elect has waged hand-to-hand combat is so far-ranging that one might be excused for missing what I think is emerging as the most consequential one for U.S. Database 2000 financial policy: the struggle between the forces of economic nationalism and those advancing libertarian goals. Database business rules Mr. Iphone 5 data recovery Trump is comfortable passing easily between the rhetoric that sometimes binds these strong wings of his popular support, but each side is substantively not only different from the other, but also at war with it. Database implementation If economic nationalism prevails in the next four years, financial policy will assume forms comfortable for, if not familiar to, central bankers and large companies (at least those domiciled in the U.S.). Raid 1 data recovery software If libertarian thinking gains traction, “Davos Man” will be sent back to the cave. Seagate data recovery Here’s why:

One reason the conflict between these two heart-felt theories has yet clearly to show itself is that economic nationalism and libertarian thinking share many elements familiar to populist and just darn-angry voters who supported Mr. Database report Trump. Data recovery specialist Importantly these are generally only in domestic-policy areas such as health care and gun rights – economic nationalists don’t much care about them and libertarians support freewheeling pistol-packing because it’s what makes each person fend for him or herself.

Data recovery iphone 6 Similarly, the two camps are not generally racist or sexist in theory if not always in practice – each is focused on what both consider bigger-picture policy goals even as each is generally willing that folks do what they want as long as they don’t expect the state to protect them through affirmative-action or similar statutes.

Because these domestic issues garner a lot of attention, clamor over them distracts from profound differences with significant strategic economic and market impact. Database building Take trade policy. Data recovery top 10 It is one clear dividing line – economic nationalists such as Mr. Database hosting Trump on this point want to man the barricades against foreign goods and, I expect, financial services. Data recovery best Libertarians aren’t big fans of NAFTA or TPP per se, but they do believe in open borders and free competition – survival of the fittest should in their view determine who sells what here, not where a product comes from.

My guess is that Mr. Data recovery program Trump, if not his new team, will move flexibly between these two opposing trade camps to pick economic nationalism when it suits him – auto manufacturing for example – and libertarianism when it doesn’t – on drug imports as an immediate case in point. 7 data recovery 94fbr As a result, who makes which decision below Mr. Database languages Trump and how advocates present their views will be even more critical than usual in determining who wins and who loses.

Fiscal policy is similarly divisive. Database ranking Economic nationalists will go big-time for an infrastructure spending plan, including one through an infrastructure bank eerily reminiscent of the one President Obama tried to advance. Data recovery youtube Libertarians not so much – they want not only a balanced budget, but also as small a federal fiscal presence as can possibly be squeezed from current spending. 911 database Infrastructure expenditures are as anathema to libertarians as welfare – see all the discussion of the Ex-Im Bank in the last Congress and talk of “corporate welfare” to see why.

Near-term regulatory decisions for the financial-services industry have similar divides. Data recovery download Economic nationalists do not care much about a ten percent leverage rule for all their disdain of Dodd-Frank regulatory burden. Data recovery after factory reset What they want is a bigger, better, and if necessary even badder banking system that makes America even greater without resort to foreign capital. Database schema design For all their deregulatory zeal, libertarians are strong advocates of tough big-bank rules because they believe that these will force big banks to splinter into the small-town, free-enterprise finance that will make America great again as finance moves from the coasts into every small town by way of far smaller, freer financial companies.

Talking about the gold standard may remind you of a long-gone economics class, but think again. Database uml Libertarians truly believe in an end to “fiat currency.” Economic nationalists believe that a great America needs a strong currency, albeit one that gains its potency from a robust economy, not by contrast to other, arguably under-valued currencies. Data recovery ntfs Would economic nationalists favor fixed exchange rates and find common ground with libertarians even if the dollar isn’t fixed to gold? Maybe, and we’re in for a debate not seen since 1972.

The real victors in the battle between economic nationalists and libertarians under Donald Trump could echo one trait Mr. Database error Trump has also shown throughout the election: pragmatism. Database functions Congress may force this on the new Trump Administration if the President does not take an occasionally-expedient decision. Top 10 data recovery And of course, many in the incoming Administration are, for all the rhetoric, profound pragmatists in their hearts. Database job titles This will likely be the saving grace over political and economic ideology – Americans have long eschewed political ideology in favor of getting as much as they can for those they love regardless of the label on the can in which it comes.

A course between economic nationalism and libertarianism that abandons cultural divisiveness for creative economic thinking could do some real good as long as “big” solutions are not accompanied by large amounts of unintended damage .

Earlier this week, FedFin sent clients an in-depth analysis of a little-noticed Financial Stability Board proposal with far-reaching potential to rewrite the structure of global finance companies. Data recovery linux live cd As is often the case with reform proposals, the FSB’s big idea here – internal total loss-absorbing capacity (I-TLAC) – makes a lot of sense in one context but wreaks havoc when one steps back to consider it in the broader framework of the way cross-border finance actually works. S pombe database Someday someone will do the cross-sectoral, cumulative impact study I have been calling for since 2011, but until then we’re in a world of one-off wonders strongly supported by the regulatory working groups that draft them and ill-understood by the senior regulators who then approve them. Database usa No wonder GOP law-makers plan to blow up Dodd-Frank – they can’t tell the good from the bad so want it all gone. Data recovery pro license key And, as another new FedFin report laid out, Senate Democrats are of a mind to join them, at least when it comes to the post-crisis resolution framework.

I-TLAC is part of TLAC – sounds like a Schwarzenegger movie, come to think of it. Data recovery on android The FSB TLAC requirements — adopted in a 2015 “term sheet” — are meant over time to apply for all SIFIs but, as usual, for now and likely forever, actually apply only to GSIBs. Icare data recovery 94fbr These unhappy banking behemoths are required to hold a buffer of loss-absorbing capacity – equity capital for the FSB and largely long-term debt for the FRB – so that a lot of money stands ahead of taxpayers or financial catastrophe if a big bank falters.

I-TLAC takes TLAC down into the bowels of a GSIB by allowing host-country regulators to isolate loss-absorbing capacity within their borders. Image database As a result, I-TLAC essentially turns GSIBs into great big eggs. Database web application The yolk – i.e., the home country bank and subs under host I-TLAC – survive when the shell is cracked, but everything else in it along with the newly-weakened shell becomes an awful mess.

Thus, under I-TLAC, the parts are stronger than the whole. Database graphic Ring-fencing capital makes some parts of a GSIB safer but weakens the whole because it cannot easily or quickly funnel resources across the company in response to changing market or stress conditions. In databases a category of data is called a Many GSIBs are thus likely to be forced to hold more parent TLAC, further building their buffers but reducing their balance-sheet capacity to gather deposits and weakening their ability to channel funds to productive financial intermediation.

In the name of a resilient global financial system, I-TLAC essentially turns that global system into one of big and little fiefdoms. Database wordpress Each of the little ones is safer, but the sum total of global finance is more fragile and still less able to support economic growth.