6 primary transformative paradigms for the auto industry

Published on March 29th, 2016 | by James Ayre 9 6 Primary Transformative Paradigms For The Auto Industry March 29th, 2016 by James Ayre Originally published on EV Obsession. There are big changes coming to the automotive industry over the next couple of decades, which is something that even relatively entrenched industry execs are seemingly starting to realize. What exactly are these changes though? And how to define them? A list


of 6 primary transformative paradigms affecting the auto industry over the next quarter-century were recently defined and outlined by ABI Research, giving us perhaps some new means of answering those questions. While the future influence of autonomous driving technology and electrification on the automotive industry is a simple enough thing to speculate about, some of the other approaching paradigm shifts are perhaps a bit more opaque. The 6 “transformative paradigms” identified by ABI Research are electrification; driverless technology/car-sharing, the “software-defined car,” the “connected car,” sensors + big data, and cooperative mobility + the internet of things. The Managing Director and Vice President at ABI Research, Dominique Bonte, commented: “The final three stages — cooperative mobility, electrification, and car sharing leading to driverless cars — will be the most disruptive to the automotive industry.

Not all car manufacturers will survive the changing landscape. And newcomers will also emerge, ones eager to create new, software-defined, high-tech cars.” Which is I suppose what companies such as Apple and Google are positioning themselves for. Green Car Congress provides more: While the first three phases are already underway, the latter three will start to drive the market forward within the next 10 years, according to the market research firm. Car manufacturers are currently revamping vehicles’ electronics and networking architecture to ensure every sub-system is connected and software-defined. Moving toward the next decade, the automotive industry will achieve cooperative mobility. Cars will communicate with not only each other but also infrastructures and environments.

Electrification will then change the way consumers power their vehicles. And, lastly, car sharing, and driverless cars, will likely lead to market consolidation. Through this industry fluctuation, there will be a number of opportunities for manufacturers and vendors to reinvent themselves, ABI said. A couple of points that were made with regard to that: “Gas stations will need to rethink their market strategy and offer new services, such as electric charging stations, or risk losing their relevance completely.” “Taxi companies are already feeling the rising pressure, meeting stiff competition from Uber and other new car sharing services.

” “Dealerships and insurance vendors also face potential upset.” “Semiconductors and software companies, on the other hand, have a huge future, as cars continue to incorporate more sensors and computing technologies into their architectures.” One would think that with the shifting ground becoming more and more apparent, established auto-manufacturers would be putting more of an effort into staying ahead of the curve, but that largely doesn’t appear to be the case. Though perhaps there’s more going on behind closed doors than we are aware of? Image Credit: ABI Research Reprinted with permission. Get CleanTechnica’s 1st (completely free) electric car report → “Electric Cars: What Early Adopters & First Followers Want.

” Come attend CleanTechnica’s 1st “Cleantech Revolution Tour” event → in Berlin, Germany, April 9–10. Keep up to date with all the hottest cleantech news by subscribing to our (free) cleantech newsletter, or keep an eye on sector-specific news by getting our (also free) solar energy newsletter, electric vehicle newsletter, or wind energy newsletter. James Ayre ‘s background is predominantly in geopolitics and history, but he has an obsessive interest in pretty much everything. After an early life spent in the Imperial Free City of Dortmund, James followed the river Ruhr to Cofbuokheim, where he attended the University of Astnide. And where he also briefly considered entering the coal mining business. He currently writes for a living, on a broad variety of subjects, ranging from science, to politics, to military history, to renewable energy.

You can follow his work on Google+. Astonishing. LIGHTWEIGHTING will, by far, be the most transformative new paradigm in the transportation sector. It will affect land, sea and air transportation—-cars, SUVs, pickups, and long distance trucks, as well as light rail, trains, ships and planes—-not simply cars. Perhaps we need to try, if possible, to stop fetishizing each new instance of an “advanced” technology as if it were a value in itself and look, rather, at what is most essential for our future as a civilization if we are to have a future: decarbonization, which, long before we ever achieve a 100% renewable and sustainable energy economy in the future, will be achieved little by little through radical new energy efficiency measures in the present. The lightweighting of the materials used in land, sea and air transportation via the use of carbon fiber composites, fiber glass, aluminum and magnesium will achieve FAR MORE RADICAL EFFICIENCIES than any of the high tech paradigms that are mentioned in this article. The 1754 lb VW XL1 is not even as fully lightweighted as it could be, yet it already gets 260 mpg on diesel, or MORE THAN TEN TIMES the mileage of the average American car, thereby, in the meantime, making the coming gradual transition to EVs run on decarbonized electricity to some degree irrelevant, as welcome as it will surely be. No “transformative” paradigm that is mentioned in this article will come even remotely as close to achieving the VW XL1’s astonishing new degree of energy efficiency.

Decarbonized electrification will simply put the icing on the cake, which will be made of layers of carbon fiber composites, fiber glass and light metals. Car sharing, for instance, may eventually achieve significant new energy efficiencies, through a reduction in the amount of embodied carbon in the land transportation fleet, but this will take time. A current lightweight vehicle that already gets 260 mpg on diesel—and that could easily be lightweighted even further to get better mileage—-makes the future and still only potential energy efficiencies of the other transportation paradigms that are mentioned here seem like “also rans.” Eventually, once the entire grid is renewable and sustainable, mainly as a result of the introduction of wind farms and solar arrays, then the total decarbonization of car transportation that may some day result from 100% electrification may, to some degree at least, begin to rival the degree of decarbonization that has ALREADY BEEN ATTAINED by the current VW XL1, which is not even as lightweight as it could be. We may need to stop fetishizing anything and everything that is “high tech” and, instead, keep our eye on the ball: i. e., on achieving immediate and radical energy efficiency and thus on achieving the most rapid “back door” decarbonization process that is possible. All of the new paradigms above can help contribute to a transformation of the land transportation fleet in favor of sustainability. None of them, however, will be as essential as lightweighting to achieving, in the near future, a stunning new degree of energy efficiency and decarbonization in LAND, SEA and AIR transportation at the same time.

If any website in the world needs to be emphasizing this far more often than it is now, it is CleanTechnica. CLEANTECH REVOLUTION TOUR Berlin, April 9–10. Berlin, Germany World-class electric car & solar energy deep dives, and more fun than should be legal. Low Voltage Electrification Event, April 25-27. Detroit, Michigan (US) Delve deep into the benefits and challenges associated with EV power supply. 8 th Annual Wind O&M Summit, April 12-13, Dallas, Texas (US) Expand your insights into the core issues at the heart of wind O&M for the coming years. Offshore Wind Market Development USA, May 11-12, Boston, Massachusetts (US) Network and establish your business in one of North America’s largest energy industries. Energy Storage USA, June 15-16, San Diego, California (US) Only event in the United States focused exclusively on the commercialization of storage. More details are on: Cleantech Events.

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